Thinking Gray
Confirmation bias is an omnipresent cognitive force that is always influencing how we view the world. This cognitive bias influences people to search out, interpret, or even recall information in a way that reinforces preexisting beliefs. What is more, once a view is formed, people tend to embrace information that confirms that view while ignoring, or even rejecting information that casts doubt upon it. Even for the most rational thinkers out there, confirmation bias - as is the case with all cognitive biases - can only be minimized and never completely eliminated on the individual level. One of these mitigation strategies that can not only help you to minimize the influence of confirmation bias, but help you to eschew thinking in binaries (i.e., black and white thinking), is the mental model known as thinking gray. According to Steven Sample from The Contrarian's Guide to Leadership, thinking gray is best described as [1]:
Most people are binary and instant in their judgments; that is, they immediately categorize things as good or bad, true or false, black or white, friend or foe. A truly effective leader, however, needs to be able to see the shades of gray inherent in a situation in order to make wise decisions as to how to proceed.
The essence of thinking gray is this: don't form an opinion about an important matter until you've head all the relevant facts and arguments, or until circumstances force you to form an opinion without recourse to all the facts (which happens occasionally, but much less frequently than one might imagine). F. Scott Fitzgerald once described something similar to thinking gray when he observed that the test of a first-rate mind is the ability to hold two opposing thoughts at the same time while still retaining the ability to function.
This model forces you to be patient. Delaying a decision allows you adequate time for cogitation about all the details surrounding the decision and to avoid immediately confirming a decision. However, this can be difficult as cognitive dissonance will most likely be activated as you explore all the different points of view as well as the evidence at hand. It's important to remain assiduous with the process as you cope with the discomfort caused by the dissonance as forming an objective position is worth the cognitive struggle.
Examples
1) Molly recently viewed a video of two Doctors using statistics gathered from their clinics regarding COVID-19 infections to argue for the re-opening of the economy in the United States, which is a position that she also espouses. Now, even though she agrees with the Doctors' position to re-open the economy, she is very hesitant to immediately embrace their arguments and begin sharing it on social media until the rest of the scientific community has analyzed their statements. Given the amount of misinformation and conspiracy theories that have gone viral throughout the course of the pandemic, Molly has decided to think gray and wait until all the facts and arguments have been heard before she forms an official opinion on the matter.
Explanation: Molly did precisely what one should do when choosing to “think gray” about any situation. Her confirmation bias wanted to immediately latch on to the narrative from these two Doctors because it fits with her already established position on the topic. However, she chose to work past the cognitive dissonance that was created by embracing the possibility that they're wrong in order to wait for more evidence. In the end, she prevented a bit of hardship because after further evaluation by experts from the scientific community, it was decided that the arguments put forward by the two Doctors were predicated on statistics that possessed errors, which rendered their arguments bad [2].
2) There is a trailer for a “documentary” that was just released that claims that the COVID-19 pandemic was orchestrated by “elites” for nefarious purposes. Within the trailer, all sorts of false claims such as: COVID-19 is an engineered virus, the flu-shot actually increases your chances of getting COVID-19, wearing masks can lead people to infect themselves with their own breath, and more [3]. Lillian, who is already skeptical of the pandemic as well as traditional media sources, recently viewed the trailer and was immediately sickened by what she was seeing. However, even though the information promulgated within the trailer fit with many of her own beliefs, she has decided to wait on sharing the trailer with other friends and family until experts as well as fact-checking sites have weighed in with their analyses.
Explanation: As you are probably already aware, the “documentary” being referred to is Plandemic, which is a cesspool of disinformation. By thinking gray, Lillian mitigated confirmation bias and avoided being one of the victims of this dangerously misleading documentary.
3) Up until this very moment, I have operated under the impression that, at one point in time, President Trump referred to the coronavirus as a hoax. In the past, Trump has used the word “hoax” many times, which includes referring to global warming as a “total, and very expensive, hoax!” His use of the word appears to be a tool for which to frame himself as a victim in order to mobilize support [4]. Regardless, I should have taken the extra step to vet his most recent use of the word in regards to the coronavirus to ensure that the criticism he was receiving was justified. Thus, given the evidence, I shouldn’t completely lambaste him this past time around as his words may have been taken out of context. That is, his use of the word “hoax” here is referencing the Democrats’ criticisms of his administration's response to the pandemic and not about the pandemic itself. All that said, given President Trump's history of use with the word, you can see why most don't give him the benefit of the doubt when he uses it, which is probably why it would be best if he eliminated it from his vocabulary altogether. Plus, none of this changes the fact that he initially downplayed the scale of the virus and the danger that it posed to the public [5].
Explanation: I clearly let confirmation bias get the best of me here. I heard the word “hoax” coming from an individual that I’m not particularly fond of and I readily assimilated this information without further thought. Candidly, I have even used this partially false narrative multiple times in casual conversation without giving the veracity of the information second thought. This could have been avoided if I would have thought gray about the comments by visiting various fact-checking sites or even read the transcript of the speech myself before passing judgement. Again, I did none of these things, which is why I now find myself obligated to openly discuss where my thinking went wrong in this instance.
***The current pandemic has released a torrent of conspiracy theories and all sorts of misinformation that have left people utterly confused as to what’s going on. I recently wrote an article about how to think critically through this pandemic, which you can find here. Further, if you’d like to learn more about how to combat disinformation in today’s digital world, you can find more information here.
Conclusion
Thinking well can be difficult given how we are hard-wired to take mental shortcuts and to do what's easiest, which often times leads to irrational thinking. One of these cognitive pitfalls that we often fall victim to is confirmation bias. Thinking gray is a mental model that helps to mitigate this bias and to encourage better thinking, which leads to better decisions that will then lead to better life outcomes. The next time you are presented with information that challenges your beliefs, remember to think gray and take time to hear all the facts and arguments before forming an opinion. Finding the truth is often a challenge, but the reward is worth the effort.
References
[1] Sample, Steven B. The Contrarian’s Guide to Leadership. California: Josey Bass, 2002. Print.
[4] The president who cried hoax? Experts weigh in on Trump’s use of the word. Politifact.
[5] Bethania, Palma. Did President Trump Refer to the Coronavirus as a ‘Hoax’? Snopes. March 2, 2020.